https://jmceager.space/contact daily 0.75 2021-06-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ce435d6bea1ed00016ba287/1558964652247-5MWXNMFZVOPGE4TY6U2Q/MHeiderich_ReflexionenZwei-05-copy.jpg Contact https://jmceager.space/about daily 0.75 2021-06-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1624082343404-70KLGZ79DH6CW48M8I5C/IMG_2109.jpeg About - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ce435d6bea1ed00016ba287/1558964652247-5MWXNMFZVOPGE4TY6U2Q/MHeiderich_ReflexionenZwei-05-copy.jpg About https://jmceager.space/work-1 daily 1.0 2025-07-04 https://jmceager.space/work-1/sultan-pros-plan monthly 0.5 2021-06-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1624081156182-IJILPDANNJIO45UH7EC1/bigmap_osprey.png Work - Sultan PROS Plan https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1624081301615-VV36DF6NJ4E5SNAAL46J/osprey_diagram.png Work - Sultan PROS Plan https://jmceager.space/work-1/orca-link-transfers monthly 0.5 2021-06-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1622928859378-MI8S4F5LX6W0YYQKXBV9/heatmap_lg.jpg Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail Transfer Origin Heatmap https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1622928109519-NTGBW1K34E22X04K4AXS/BlocksDiff.jpg Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail - Diminishing returns as station distance increases The plot to the left shows the expected change in transfers from a given origin station when shifted 1 block (300 feet) closer to the Link. All other covariates are held at their means. When the origin station is already closer to the Link, the change in transfers is significantly greater than when the origin station is further away. This highlights the logarithmic relationship between distance and transfers quite clearly and also presents a wider confidence interval for closer stations than further ones. Simulations were calculated using R’s simcf package before visualization with tile. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1622932802436-P0OY5SJGYBKLW3742QYW/orcatypes.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail - ORCA User Type Effects On the left, the marginal effects, 95% confidence intervals, and observed data for each of the ORCA user types’ effect on the model is plotted. The theory behind this analysis is twofold. First, low-income users (LIFT) are more likely to be transit-captive and this could force them onto more transfer-heavy routes. Second, other studies point towards age, health, and mobility as drivers of transfers. Using each ORCA user group’s proportional ridership of both the origin line and the destination Link station offers some insights into how those theories track on the Link. First, youth users had the strongest effect, but also made up a larger proportion of transit ridership more frequently (although it should be noted that Adult users are the vast majority just about everywhere in the system). Second, there was also some effect from LIFT users, it was not nearly as strong as among youth. Senior and disabled users make up relatively small proportions of ORCA use and transit ridership and had statistically insignificant effects. I used the R package simcf to simulate these counterfacutals, and tile to visualize them. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1623170959368-3MM8XN1MUMSEFHAXFSZC/marginal.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail - Comparison of Model Approaches The chart above compares 3 models: a fully-saturated model with a linear relationship between walking distance and transfer volumes (Lin in green), another full model with a logarithmic relationship between distance and transfers (Log in orange), and a log-distance model without station area or ridership controls (Simple in blue). Each plot shows the marginal effects for each of these 3 variables, with all other variables held at their means. Observed data is plotted on each axis with a point for each observation, scattered slightly for better separation. The results show a couple of key findings in the model-building process. First, the log-distance models fit the data more closely and offer more confident estimates – as exemplified by their confidence intervals. Second, when accounting for both a more accurate effect of distance on transfers and station area effects, vehicular speeds have a relatively limited effect on transfer ridership. This suggests that some of the perceived safety and comfort of transferring are captured by the walking network in each station area. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1623171181612-3UFBCTNY07XUO6M70FMY/diffStations.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail - Comparing Model Geographies To account for any possible bias towards any given Link station, the model was run with different selections of stations. TRAC suggested that UW station can often distort results, so I began there, and continued by running the model with just downtown transit tunnel stations, then adding the rest of downtown Seattle’s stations, and finally adding all stations within Seattle’s municipal boundaries. The results in the figure to the right suggest general agreement despite the different selections of stations. Statistically, none of the results from selected geographies are significantly different from the full model. Only the walking route characteristics are displayed here, but even among the station area and ridership controls, results were similar. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/21e9e6ce-8c5f-460b-8ce5-91290a0e7bdd/Westlake.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/cb4b0063-2d95-4e70-a0a3-b8639ff0931e/PioneerSq.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/ed91ea98-4b3e-4fe9-a575-5a27f7f4dd80/UnivSt.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/82234be3-d2e6-49e3-9c47-9e10f54f252a/ID_C.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/4a5d4bf7-dbd3-4219-bc1f-a087961be512/CapHill.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/bda4deec-b90d-4598-954f-a914c8323261/UW.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/2d65e014-5350-4413-8720-bca6c04f09e3/SODO.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/aabbb25e-912c-47ca-85a4-bbfeb7d9b4b7/Stadium.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/c2b9763c-cfd1-4067-9bde-3d79c19076a9/ColumbiaC.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/8dfd976c-e770-40a6-b5d3-568d75be4028/MountBaker.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/c1e90d1e-3f72-4835-ac82-5cecfc29d900/Othello.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1466d72f-e27e-4ba2-b17f-198367edfe53/RainierBeach.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/82652af6-a7be-4bec-bd4c-074707a335f5/SeaTac.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/5f2b409c-e544-4346-8cd0-dd82b4950c08/AngleLake.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/6b89e1af-c374-43ff-9b00-733d8402cdcc/BeaconHill.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/ea7113dd-3534-49f2-9a9d-469647858a2b/Tukwila.png Work - ORCA Transfers to Link Light Rail https://jmceager.space/work-1/high-road-map monthly 0.5 2021-06-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1624081863398-OMV08FV0QUP4GK85JJ7M/county3.png Work - The High Road - A Big Map for a Big Project The map to the right uses information collected by volunteers who I trained to collect information on trails, roads, amenities, and barriers in early High Road planning. The full map was designed to be used by volunteers themselves, working groups, stakeholders, and eventually the public. I designed every facet of this map and the underlying geodatabase using ESRI products: ArcMap, ArcCatalog, and ArcGIS Pro. Templates for new data were developed to better organize and collect new trail and amenity data. This map specifically was designed to be printed at 24” by 36”, but I also developed templates for smaller printable versions of the map for flexibility. https://jmceager.space/work-1/orca-puget-sound monthly 0.5 2021-06-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1624079592235-QD7LZVQ7EH36VKIRJQ0W/riders.png Work - Puget Sound ORCA Use - Where are Frequent Riders? The map to the right shows the percentage of ORCA-eligible population (over 6 years old) in each block group where ORCA data was collected. TRAC uses a probabilistic model to estimate where riders live based on ridership patterns observed through ORCA card usage. This formed the basis of the modeling process. The map shows some expected results, where block groups with the most frequent riders are in denser more urban neighborhoods. There are a few interesting and less-expected block groups such as the dark blue just North of Everett. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1624079919732-GQGK3E0E0ONH0HH4UPRV/final_relative_risk.png Work - Puget Sound ORCA Use - Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. Plot showing the percent change given an increase in 1 standard deviation, with all other variables held at their means. Filled dots are significant at a .05 level, open dots are not, and lines show 95% confidence intervals. Plot made using R packages tile and simcf. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1624080484604-CAORP476BUNFZ0G2U7IK/marginalnew.png Work - Puget Sound ORCA Use - Transit Predicts Riders Basically, this study suggested that access to transit and transit’s ability to take riders to work were instrumental in supporting improved ridership. The plots to the left show a stark difference in magnitude between the two, however. Using R to simulate these counterfactual hypotheses, it is clear that frequency was a much stronger predictor than jobs access. https://jmceager.space/work-1/motw-examples monthly 0.5 2021-07-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1622662934007-19ZOEUQJFRUZ270ZSJZ6/BrainDrain.gif Work - Map(s) of the Week https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1622662995995-DEV4GXD6KZ4FZUUZ9ELV/newchoc.png Work - Map(s) of the Week “Map” made using Tableau, and rearranged using Adobe Illustrator to move the circles into continents. Text added in Illustrator. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/60b7c7375c4e06485844c1e3/1622663187120-R0CKJ5U7TERY8O9O8LWW/flowers.png Work - Map(s) of the Week - Make it stand out Map made in Adobe Illustrator alone, using clipping masks.